Wind万⛩(wan)得🆔(de) 　　美🕖(mei)联🎨(lian)储🎺(chu)官🕊(guan)员👭(yuan)公🎶(gong)开😪(kai)讲🚿(jiang)话🍛(hua)认👭(ren)为🙋(wei)，预⚡(yu)计💃(ji)在🔳(zai)2026年❎(nian)才🏥(cai)有🏠(you)可🙄(ke)能💰(neng)实⏬(shi)现😠(xian)2%的👺(de)通🌥(tong)胀⤴(zhang)目🦂(mu)标🚮(biao)
事🏻(shi)实😛(shi)上🌑(shang)，美📱(mei)联🌷(lian)储🤫(chu)的🎢(de)内🏗(nei)部🌴(bu)研🛹(yan)究🍗(jiu)认🐠(ren)为💣(wei)，通💑(tong)胀🕟(zhang)目🚱(mu)标📷(biao)并🚀(bing)没❌(mei)有💈(you)那📐(na)么🌜(me)容🎉(rong)易💓(yi)实🆚(shi)现🌲(xian)。 　　克🕎(ke)利🤞(li)夫🗝(fu)兰🌍(lan)联🐕(lian)储🕌(chu)的⛺(de)高⛔(gao)级🤓(ji)研👯(yan)究⛪(jiu)经✌(jing)济🌊(ji)学✅(xue)家🕋(jia)Randal Verbruge警🕜(jing)告🧕(gao)称🦌(cheng)，实🤷(shi)际🛬(ji)上💊(shang)可🏾(ke)能🎗(neng)需🍫(xu)要🎪(yao)几🦀(ji)年🔱(nian)时🈯(shi)间📙(jian)才🎗(cai)能🆑(neng)达♊(da)到🌦(dao)2%的🌟(de)通✂(tong)胀🚹(zhang)目🏖(mu)标⚪(biao)。他🎥(ta)提😒(ti)出🕧(chu)的💨(de)模🤲(mo)型📸(xing)显🌡(xian)示🐰(shi)，到🦍(dao)2025年❌(nian)第🍵(di)二🌙(er)季⛰(ji)度🥁(du)，通🤝(tong)胀🌙(zhang)率🌀(lv)仍🎻(reng)将🈳(jiang)高🏗(gao)于🚡(yu)2.7%，到🤥(dao)20027年📀(nian)年🏪(nian)中🚋(zhong)，美🥖(mei)国🌷(guo)的🐘(de)通🍟(tong)胀🌾(zhang)率🌋(lv)将🚫(jiang)接🕟(jie)近😳(jin)但📽(dan)仍✋(reng)略🐭(lve)高🤼(gao)于🛹(yu)2%。 　　本🎠(ben)周🤤(zhou)五☝(wu)将🔕(jiang)公🧠(gong)布🎖(bu)美🏀(mei)联🚁(lian)储⛑(chu)最🚟(zui)重🦋(zhong)视🖤(shi)的👷(de)通🍡(tong)胀🌑(zhang)指👰(zhi)标🅰(biao)PCE，有🦀(you)可💟(ke)能💸(neng)加⛹(jia)强🎿(qiang)或♎(huo)改🔽(gai)变♑(bian)目🕋(mu)前🍋(qian)对🐐(dui)美🅰(mei)联😲(lian)储🔝(chu)将🔴(jiang)于✔(yu)9月🥚(yue)首🚿(shou)次🖊(ci)降🚜(jiang)息🌽(xi)的🚻(de)预🎰(yu)期💭(qi)。经🚏(jing)济📍(ji)学🏚(xue)家✝(jia)的🎥(de)中🏦(zhong)值👥(zhi)估⏮(gu)计🍋(ji)是🤓(shi)，即😠(ji)将🍆(jiang)公😫(gong)布♏(bu)的📶(de)5月🏀(yue)PCE，将⛔(jiang)从💳(cong)4月🥣(yue)份🐜(fen)的🛹(de)2.7%降👪(jiang)至🦍(zhi)2.6%，而🗞(er)核✴(he)心🎿(xin)PCE 将🕕(jiang)从🏌(cong)2.8%降🍇(jiang)至🌷(zhi)2.6%。 　　Randal Verbruge 进👻(jin)一🐂(yi)步🤖(bu)阐🦊(chan)述👣(shu)了💔(le)他💫(ta)的🍯(de)观😻(guan)点🌅(dian)，即🔰(ji)为🛺(wei)什👴(shen)么🥈(me)“最💖(zui)后🎲(hou)半🈯(ban)英📭(ying)里✝(li)”的📩(de)通🚒(tong)货🚵(huo)膨🆚(peng)胀🦗(zhang)会😭(hui)被🍇(bei)证✒(zheng)明🌎(ming)是🏨(shi)如🔲(ru)此🏦(ci)顽🥣(wan)固👕(gu)。他🎑(ta)指🍂(zhi)出🌊(chu)，三🌴(san)大🤠(da)因🃏(yin)素🎤(su)于😅(yu)推🤑(tui)动🐶(dong)通🥉(tong)货🍲(huo)膨🧖(peng)胀🤐(zhang)的🍧(de)力👨(li)量🏮(liang)：经🐀(jing)济🔜(ji)衰💿(shuai)退✅(tui)、经🐤(jing)济🚀(ji)过📎(guo)热🖍(re)和🚗(he)供🚊(gong)应📥(ying)链🧠(lian)压♋(ya)力🥁(li)。在👇(zai)没💕(mei)有🤩(you)任🌼(ren)何😁(he)这👵(zhe)些📌(xie)力🕊(li)量🌋(liang)的🎬(de)情⚓(qing)况🤚(kuang)下🧀(xia)，通🥟(tong)货✴(huo)膨🛠(peng)胀👗(zhang)通🚷(tong)常🐏(chang)具🔞(ju)有👮(you)持🥚(chi)久🍿(jiu)的🥓(de)“内🐗(nei)在🚁(zai)”特👲(te)性😨(xing)，这✒(zhe)些🛋(xie)特🐗(te)性😎(xing)往🐙(wang)往🐒(wang)会🦅(hui)使⛺(shi)其🎫(qi)在📭(zai)不🚦(bu)被🥂(bei)推🛑(tui)动😱(dong)的🧞(de)情💂(qing)况🐋(kuang)下🌒(xia)缓🎌(huan)慢🎪(man)地🆓(di)向🥖(xiang)2%迈🎂(mai)进👅(jin)。 　　Randal Verbruge 创🌝(chuang)建🙌(jian)了🤠(le)一🍯(yi)个💛(ge)模🏸(mo)型😌(xing)，描🔰(miao)述🎿(shu)了🛶(le)导🛅(dao)致🕗(zhi)通🍝(tong)货🎸(huo)膨💗(peng)胀🛐(zhang)的🥡(de)所🐰(suo)有🔳(you)因👅(yin)素🏜(su)。其🍠(qi)中🐉(zhong)一🏦(yi)种🦁(zhong)力🐆(li)量😄(liang)是♒(shi)预🔼(yu)期😛(qi)通🔻(tong)货🔟(huo)膨🗽(peng)胀🍠(zhang)，或👮(huo)者🥅(zhe)人🙌(ren)们🕋(men)对🎣(dui)未🆘(wei)来🦇(lai)一🗻(yi)年🐁(nian)或🍫(huo)几🎴(ji)年👸(nian)通⛷(tong)货✅(huo)膨⬇(peng)胀💔(zhang)的🕺(de)看🕣(kan)法🍲(fa)。第🚅(di)二🔱(er)个🦂(ge)因🚑(yin)素🌬(su)是🔽(shi)最🐢(zui)近🚐(jin)的💗(de)通🎻(tong)货🃏(huo)膨🗳(peng)胀🗃(zhang)，这😕(zhe)对💟(dui)那🚊(na)些🎃(xie)没🛷(mei)有😬(you)机🤙(ji)会🍊(hui)调🎚(tiao)整🐗(zheng)价🤼(jia)格📗(ge)和♋(he)弥🍞(mi)补⬅(bu)被🤧(bei)挤📥(ji)压🚩(ya)的🕎(de)利💅(li)润♐(run)的🌷(de)企🆓(qi)业🏰(ye)来✅(lai)说🕰(shuo)尤🥍(you)其🐲(qi)重🐬(zhong)要👠(yao)。第🏊(di)三🐖(san)组🛸(zu)因🧛(yin)素🥝(su)是🏨(shi)外🖼(wai)部🌪(bu)因🎭(yin)素💏(su)，如🛴(ru)经🎞(jing)济🤚(ji)衰👜(shuai)退🐲(tui)、经🌃(jing)济🕚(ji)过👃(guo)热🐠(re)或🚟(huo)供😧(gong)应🏪(ying)链👭(lian)中❔(zhong)断💥(duan)。第👀(di)四🌏(si)个🎫(ge)因🤟(yin)素🌥(su)是🚻(shi)“一🎱(yi)次🥝(ci)性📳(xing)”冲⛵(chong)击🈶(ji)，可🏪(ke)能🎞(neng)包🧜(bao)括🚜(kuo)天📕(tian)然💞(ran)气🎌(qi)价👓(jia)格👊(ge)的📟(de)突🌽(tu)然🌹(ran)上🤰(shang)涨🗳(zhang)或😕(huo)下🔶(xia)跌➖(die)。 　　克😲(ke)利📀(li)夫💒(fu)兰🛺(lan)联🧗(lian)储🔄(chu)是🧗(shi)全🌋(quan)国🕌(guo)12家💨(jia)地🏄(di)区📚(qu)性🦏(xing)联⬅(lian)储🆑(chu)之🛋(zhi)一🏋(yi)，也🏧(ye)是✉(shi)通🚻(tong)货🌚(huo)膨🌆(peng)胀😽(zhang)研👈(yan)究🥎(jiu)中💫(zhong)心🕞(xin)的🔂(de)所😘(suo)在⏪(zai)地🔒(di)，由🥝(you)今💜(jin)年🤮(nian)联➗(lian)邦👿(bang)公🏸(gong)开🛴(kai)市🏫(shi)场🆒(chang)委📠(wei)员💺(yuan)会🍺(hui)的💔(de)投♿(tou)票🍰(piao)成🛫(cheng)员🧝(yuan)Loretta Mester领💊(ling)导👝(dao)，她🚚(ta)将💻(jiang)于💲(yu)本🌤(ben)月🚟(yue)底😍(di)退☔(tui)休➡(xiu)Loretta Mestertong 🤪(tong)chang 🤩(chang)bei 🌈(bei)shi 🕷(shi)wei 🤐(wei)ying 💁(ying)pai 🐾(pai)zheng 🏏(zheng)ce 🌀(ce)zhi 😶(zhi)ding ⏹(ding)zhe 🦍(zhe)，zai 🆓(zai)ben 🧘(ben)yue ⬆(yue)zao 🌺(zao)xie 📲(xie)shi 🔎(shi)hou 🔈(hou)biao 🍍(biao)shi 🛒(shi)，mei 🍙(mei)lian ♐(lian)chu 🤞(chu)zai ✳(zai)jiang 🚒(jiang)xi 😨(xi)zhi 🥕(zhi)qian 🍗(qian)xu 🐚(xu)yao 😉(yao)kan 🍹(kan)dao 🌧(dao)jin 📝(jin)yi 💺(yi)bu 😽(bu)de 🅾(de)di 🏓(di)tong 🌻(tong)zhang ✉(zhang)shu 😮(shu)ju ⛑(ju)。 　　jin 🌰(jin)nian 😴(nian)yi 🖇(yi)lai 🗳(lai)，ding ♈(ding)ji 💿(ji)fen 🏬(fen)xi ⚪(xi)shi 🍔(shi)de 🦀(de)pu 😉(pu)bian 🐜(bian)yu 👨(yu)ce ➿(ce)shi 🍸(shi)，2025nian 🔛(nian)PCEtong 🐂(tong)zhang 🐼(zhang)lv ✴(lv)jiang 🖥(jiang)jie 📔(jie)jin 📜(jin)2%，bi ⏰(bi)Randal Verbruge de 👪(de)mo 😊(mo)xing ⛰(xing)xian 🍽(xian)shi 🥄(shi)de ♉(de)yao 🦈(yao)kuai 🏇(kuai)。Randal Verbruge dui 🥇(dui)ci ➖(ci)biao 🚢(biao)shi 🆕(shi)，“dang 🌗(dang)ran 🚹(ran)，wo 📁(wo)ke 🈺(ke)neng 🙎(neng)cuo 🍛(cuo)le 👃(le)。mei 🍭(mei)you 📏(you)yi 🚨(yi)ge 🏙(ge)mo 🏞(mo)xing 🔃(xing)shi 🐗(shi)wan 🐹(wan)mei 💬(mei)de 📱(de)。dan 🤘(dan)zhe 🈺(zhe)ge 🏜(ge)mo 🤫(mo)xing 🔯(xing)biao 🖥(biao)ming 📜(ming)，ren ✒(ren)you 🐷(you)tong 🙌(tong)zhang 💼(zhang)zi 🏩(zi)xing 📸(xing)jue 🥔(jue)ding 🌡(ding)，tong 🗜(tong)zhang 🤥(zhang)lv 💩(lv)bu 🌅(bu)hui ✋(hui)hen 🤘(hen)kuai 😃(kuai)shang 🎛(shang)sheng 🎢(sheng)dao 🍙(dao)2%。” 　　Randal Verbruge cheng 🥊(cheng)，huo 👪(huo)peng 🍹(peng)zhang 👩(zhang)de 🎟(de)nei 🖖(nei)zai ✝(zai)chi 🕕(chi)jiu 🚊(jiu)xing 🔗(xing)，shi 🤼(shi)ji 🔉(ji)yu 🎛(yu)ren ❓(ren)men 🤫(men)dui 😨(dui)wei 🍯(wei)lai 🙃(lai)de 🥠(de)yu 🧛(yu)qi 🍹(qi)yi 🍓(yi)ji 🔅(ji)jing 🐫(jing)ji 🌞(ji)zhong 🐉(zhong)jia 🛃(jia)ge ❔(ge)de ⛷(de)she 🥂(she)ding 😦(ding)。ta 🏛(ta)ti 🚳(ti)chu 🎸(chu)le 🎀(le)qi 🎷(qi)ye 💗(ye)ji ⏳(ji)shi 😝(shi)zai 🚦(zai)yu ✖(yu)qi 🕴(qi)tong 😀(tong)zhang 🎪(zhang)xia 🕸(xia)jiang 💬(jiang)de ⌛(de)shi 🦒(shi)hou ➿(hou)，ye 👟(ye)ke 🧑(ke)yi 🚢(yi)ji 💶(ji)xu ♍(xu)ti 😖(ti)gao 🥃(gao)jia 🖇(jia)ge 🦋(ge)de 🕦(de)lun ➡(lun)dian 🤩(dian)。gong 🈺(gong)zi 🌨(zi)shi 🛫(shi)qi 🚁(qi)zhong 📻(zhong)de 🍱(de)yi 🍸(yi)bu 🕗(bu)fen 💩(fen)。ru ⚫(ru)guo 🍹(guo)tu 🔠(tu)ran 🍪(ran)bu 🗡(bu)de 🌤(de)bu 🧒(bu)zhi 📇(zhi)fu 👩(fu)gao 🧝(gao)de 🦏(de)duo 🎳(duo)de 🕟(de)gong 🗑(gong)zi 🎻(zi)，zhe 🧖(zhe)hui 📸(hui)xue 👶(xue)jian 🏬(jian)li 🌹(li)run 🔤(run)，qi 🥚(qi)ye 🚶(ye)ke 🐬(ke)neng 📩(neng)hui 🏔(hui)shi 🌺(shi)tu 🏋(tu)ti 🎫(ti)gao 🌭(gao)jia 💵(jia)ge 🌘(ge)。 　　li 😁(li)shi 🌄(shi)zheng 📄(zheng)ming 🐐(ming)le 🚕(le)zhe 🌌(zhe)yi 🐍(yi)dian 🕺(dian)，you 👍(you)qi 😪(qi)shi 😷(shi)cong ⚓(cong)2012nian 👶(nian)dao ⏮(dao)2019nian 🥊(nian)，dang 🍯(dang)shi ⏱(shi)12ge 🎢(ge)yue ⚾(yue)de 🎓(de)ping 🎶(ping)jun 🆔(jun)ge 🃏(ge)ren 💩(ren)xiao 🧕(xiao)fei 🔀(fei)zhi 🅾(zhi)chu 🚁(chu)tong 🏄(tong)zhang 🐠(zhang)lv 📸(lv)jin 💵(jin)shang 🎺(shang)sheng 🤗(sheng)le ✅(le)0.5%，da 👧(da)yue 🐪(yue)yong 😸(yong)le 🤚(le)liu 🛰(liu)nian 🥖(nian)shi 🤫(shi)jian 😔(jian)。ti 🖨(ti)chu ⭐(chu)mei 🙋(mei)yue 👟(yue)zeng 🥣(zeng)chang 😆(chang)zui 🗜(zui)kuai 💦(kuai)he 🌥(he)zui ⏩(zui)man ⛴(man)de 🦒(de)bu 🍸(bu)fen 🐉(fen)hou 🚈(hou)，tiao 🍆(tiao)hou 👸(hou)ping 📧(ping)jun 📪(jun)zhi 😚(zhi)shi 🦌(shi)heng 🌒(heng)liang 🦄(liang)he 🌿(he)xin 🚍(xin)tong 🌮(tong)zhang 🐻(zhang)de 🌽(de)ling 💘(ling)yi 🆎(yi)zhong 🦐(zhong)fang 🍱(fang)shi ⏬(shi)。 　　Randal Verbrugecheng 👰(cheng)：“tong 💘(tong)huo 🎲(huo)peng ⏭(peng)zhang 📛(zhang)bu 🏈(bu)hui 🌃(hui)hen 🦄(hen)kuai 😫(kuai)hui 😔(hui)luo 🍀(luo)dao 🐅(dao)2%，chu 💣(chu)fei 🐅(fei)ta 🐖(ta)shi 🏵(shi)you 💆(you)mou ⤵(mou)zhong 🧀(zhong)wai 🍴(wai)bu ⛴(bu)li 🏧(li)liang 👾(liang)，huo 🖼(huo)mou 🦉(mou)zhong 🥛(zhong)chao 🎾(chao)chu 🚓(chu)zheng 🔘(zheng)chang 💗(chang)fan 🏁(fan)wei 🔨(wei)de 🚌(de)nei 🙉(nei)zai 👑(zai)li 🚶(li)liang 🤷(liang)tui ❓(tui)dong 💵(dong)de 🕤(de)。wo 😙(wo)de 🍬(de)mo 🐹(mo)xing 🚚(xing)xian 🥜(xian)shi ❤(shi)，tong ⏰(tong)zhang 😬(zhang)hui 🐵(hui)jian 🏍(jian)nan 🛷(nan)di 🛂(di)suo 📨(suo)hui 🆕(hui)dao 🎡(dao)2%。” 　　Randal Verbruge de 🛂(de)mo 🤸(mo)xing 🕣(xing)biao ⚪(biao)ming 🍕(ming)，“ru 🍃(ru)guo ⬅(guo)gong 🤰(gong)ying 🏝(ying)lian 🏒(lian)de 🐞(de)gai 👔(gai)shan 🛹(shan)bu 🌒(bu)zai 🐑(zai)jin 🐚(jin)yi 😘(yi)bu 👞(bu)jiang 🐩(jiang)di ♏(di)tong ⤵(tong)zhang 🎁(zhang)，na 🐚(na)me 🚉(me)wei 🦌(wei)yi 😂(yi)hui 🤣(hui)gei 🛬(gei)dai 💸(dai)lai 🔙(lai)xia 🧓(xia)xing 🥛(xing)ya 🚙(ya)li 🕌(li)de 🛤(de)yin 😼(yin)su 💫(su)jiu 🔖(jiu)shi 🎼(shi)jing 🦋(jing)ji 😅(ji)shuai 🐵(shuai)tui 🥕(tui)。ru 🛎(ru)guo 💾(guo)mei ❗(mei)you 🔀(you)jing 🍡(jing)ji 🥚(ji)shuai 💍(shuai)tui 💭(tui)，na 🎹(na)jiu 🎯(jiu)yao 👺(yao)you 🛥(you)nai 🍚(nai)xin ✈(xin)，yin 🍉(yin)wei 🐌(wei)zhe 🌥(zhe)xu 👑(xu)yao 🍭(yao)yi 🆚(yi)duan ♿(duan)shi 🧘(shi)jian 🍞(jian)。”